Nothing new in Berlin

Political volatility is part of Berlin's market logic

The answer is more sobering than the public debate would suggest. Those who invest in Berlin do so not because they believe in political stability, but because they are aware of political volatility. Housing policy initiatives have been a constant feature of this city for many years. Rent controls, neighborhood protection, expropriation debates, and restrictions on furnished rentals are not exceptional circumstances, but part of everyday life in Berlin. No professional market participant is surprised by this.

Investors calculate in periods of ten years or more. In these time frames, changes in political majorities are not the exception, but the rule. Even if the political landscape looked different today, no one would assume that this would last. Regulation is priced in, not suppressed. It is part of the risk analysis, not its counterargument.

A look at the past decade and a half underscores this logic. Despite ever-new interventions, rents have risen, as have residential property prices. Capital has flowed into the market, not because the framework conditions were ideal, but because the structural factors remained convincing. Housing is scarce, new construction is lagging behind demand, and demand is high. This constellation has not been resolved by political interventions.

Regulation primarily affects supply

What regulation has done, however, is to make people increasingly reluctant to build. Approval procedures have become more complex, investment decisions more difficult, the climate more challenging, and projects have been postponed or abandoned altogether. The result is not relief, but a consolidation of scarcity. This, too, is not an ideological statement, but an economic observation.

Berlin remains a politicized city. It always has been and always will be. This is a known factor for investors. Anyone who operates here knows the rules of the game and accepts them. The real question is therefore not so much whether political debates deter capital, but whether the city is prepared to acknowledge the consequences of its own actions.

Experience breeds serenity

Experience shows that investors have learned to live with Berlin's political reality. The market responds by adapting. Those who buy today do so with a sense of proportion, long-term calculation, and the certainty that political discussions come and go. The structural shortage remains.

Berlin is not shaped by what is demanded politically, but by what actually happens. As long as too little is being built, living space will remain in high demand. And as long as that is the case, investors will stay. Not out of naivety, but out of experience.